General Situation during October 2004
Forecast until mid-December 2004
The Desert Locust situation remained extremely serious during October. There has been a significant redistribution of populations from West to Northwest Africa. As vegetation dried out, numerous swarms left the summer breeding areas in the Sahel, West Africa and invaded Morocco and Algeria. Some swarms arrived in the Cape Verde Islands. A few swarms also reached the Mediterranean coast near the Libyan and Egyptian border and crossed the sea to Crete, and probably to Cyprus and the Lebanon. Aerial and ground control operations continued in the Sahel and intensive operations were launched in Morocco and Algeria and started in Libya and Egypt. The situation should continue to improve in the Sahel but it is likely to deteriorate further in Northwest Africa as more swarms arrive during November.
Western Region. Numerous immature swarms continued to form in Senegal, southern Mauritania, Mali and Niger during October. Smaller infestations were present in Burkina Faso, Chad and the Cape Verde islands. Vegetation rapidly dried out in many areas and swarms moved north into northwest Mauritania and Western Sahara where it was dry. Consequently, swarms have continued further north and reached the southern foothills of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco and Algeria. Swarms also moved into northern Mali and Niger, and southern Algeria where breeding was in progress. Unusually strong and persistent southwesterly winds at mid-month carried a few small swarms to the Mediterranean coast in northeastern Libya and to the island of Crete in Greece. By the end of the month, infestations had declined in the Sahelian zone in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad. Control operations treated one million ha in the region during October. If rainfall occurs in northwest Mauritania and Western Sahara, many of the swarms will stay there, mature and lay eggs that will hatch and form bands. If rains do not fall, the swarms will continue north and arrive in Morocco and Algeria during November where they will concentrate along the southern side of the Atlas Mountains and probably remain immature until spring, 2005. In this case, control teams will have about four months to reduce locust infestations before the swarms mature and lay eggs.
Central Region. Control operations treated a few small groups of hoppers and adults on the Red Sea coast in Yemen in early October. Only a few adults were present west of the Nile River in Sudan and no locusts were seen on the western coast of the Red Sea. At the end of the month, small immature swarms were reported on the Mediterranean coast in northwest Egypt. This was associated with the locusts that arrived in adjacent areas in northeastern Libya. There were also unconfirmed reports of swarms on Cyprus and in the Lebanon, again brought by strong southwesterly winds.
Eastern Region. Isolated adults were present in the summer breeding areas in Pakistan near the Indian border. No significant developments are likely.
Weather & Ecological Conditions in October 2004
Very little rain fell in the Sahel of West Africa during October and vegetation continued to dry out. Dry conditions prevailed in Northwest Africa. Good rains fell along parts of the Red Sea coast. In the Western Region, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was further south than normal during October, oscillating between 10N and 15N and occasionally reaching 18N in the first decade. Consequently, the rainy season in the Sahel came to end by about mid October and vegetation continued to dry out in all areas. In Mauritania, limited areas of green vegetation were present in the northwest near Atar. In northern Mali, vegetation was green in the Adrar des Iforas between Kidal and Tessalit. In Niger, good conditions persisted in Tamesna and eastern Air. In Northwest Africa, conditions were generally dry south of the Atlas Mountains in Morocco and Algeria. In the southern Algerian Sahara, green vegetation was present in several wadis southwest of Tamanrasset and along the Mali border. In Chad, vegetation was drying out except in the northeast where favourable conditions persisted near Fada.
Unusually strong southwesterly winds persisted for several days during the month over the Algerian and Libyan Sahara. In the Central Region, moderate rainfall occurred in early October in western Sudan followed by similar showers in central and eastern regions. Light to moderate rain fell along both sides of the Red Sea in Eritrea and Yemen, and extended to Jizan, Saudi Arabia. Consequently, breeding conditions were favourable in Yemen and were improving in Eritrea.
In the Eastern Region, moderate to heavy rain fell along the Indo-Pakistan border.
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